The Coming Refracture in Real Estate.

Why Commission Structures—Not Brands—Will Define the Future

The real estate industry has always had its divisions—between franchises and independents, national names and boutique firms, high-split models and flat-fee operations. But those divisions are being redrawn. Not by brand. By compensation philosophy.

"What’s unfolding isn’t a brand battle. It’s a refracture—one where the dividing line won’t be name recognition or how many signs are in a neighborhood, but how brokerages pay their agents and what agents receive in return." — Mark Lukes, Founder & CEO

Agents—especially the next generation entering the industry—are more informed than ever before. They don’t just ask about your office or logo. They’re studying models. They’re comparing revenue share programs, splits, and flat-fee platforms. They have access to massive databases, public reviews, and agent-to-agent commentary that gives them insight into how every major brokerage operates. This transparency is shaping their choices—and making them less loyal to the first brokerage they join.

In fact, many of these newer agents are willing to test and retest models. They're open to trying a franchise, moving to a virtual platform, and later joining a hybrid or boutique—depending on what serves them best at the time. The idea that agents will stay put once they find a "home" is becoming outdated. Loyalty is no longer a given. It’s earned, constantly.

As more agents become fluent in the economics of brokerage life, the industry could find itself quietly dividing into three near-equal segments: traditional split-based models, revenue share platforms, and flat-fee/low-overhead structures. Each of these could settle into roughly a third of the market share. Within those segments, brokerages will compete not just on price, but on culture, tech offerings, training, admin support, and ancillary services. The question won’t just be how much do I pay—but what do I get for it?

COMMISSIONS over BRAND will be the future!

That will be the battleground moving forward. At the same time, we’re watching the consolidation of mid-sized and large brokerages accelerate. Owners are aging out. Some are ready to retire, others are no longer interested in riding out regulatory changes or chasing shrinking margins. As these brokerages sell, merge, or dissolve, the total number of players in any given market shrinks. This naturally reduces the choices agents have—at least on paper—but it also sharpens the differences between the remaining options.

As fewer brokerages compete in each geographic area, the pressure intensifies. Agents will evaluate what’s left with a different lens. They’ll ask deeper questions. They’ll move more decisively. And this will only speed up the quiet fracture already underway.

Some brokers still hope that strong branding will retain their agents. Others assume their local relationships or market presence will be enough to weather the change. But what’s happening isn’t about visibility. It’s about economics. The math is becoming the message.

A logo alone doesn’t justify a 70/30 split anymore—not without visible, tangible value to back it up. That value might still be there—but it has to be proven, not assumed.

The takeaway here isn’t panic. It’s awareness.

Brokerages don’t need to become all things to all people. But they do need to choose their lane, and support it well. Trying to be a little bit of everything—part tech company, part full-service, part discount—will likely stretch leadership, confuse agents, and weaken value on all fronts.

What we’re seeing now is not a dramatic collapse, but a re-sorting. Agents are finding their way to models that reflect their personal business goals. The brands that thrive won’t be those with the loudest message. They’ll be the ones with the clearest one—backed by structure, service, and alignment with how their agents want to work.

The fracture is already here. It’s in the conversations happening between agents over coffee. It’s in the decisions being made quietly at year-end. It’s in the business plans top producers are putting together behind the scenes. And it’s in the increasing number of broker-owners exploring what comes next for their company—not because they failed, but because they see what’s coming.

There’s still time to adapt. Still time to rethink structure, model, or even ownership. But waiting for the market to stabilize around one clear winner won’t work. There won’t be one. The future will be defined not by a dominant brand, but by a set of dominant models, each pulling a third of the agent population, each competing within its own tier.

The question now is simple: Where does your brokerage fit? And what are you doing about it?